I know, I know. You are never to look ahead of your next opponent.....but I just cannot resist the fun. With Oregon and Oklahoma dropping this week....the possibility of UGA in the national title game became a tiny bit more realistic than the pipe dream from a week ago. Granted, the Commodore kick that clipped the upright would've made it even more likely, as a trip to (and victory in) Atlanta over LSU is the only real shot that now exists. On a side note, if a few more things had happened this past week (Cincinnati beating W. Virgina, Michigan beating Ohio State) it would have been more than possible for an LSU-UGA national title game. Now, that is impossible. However, we could still slip in if a few things happen (all are incredibly possible) in this crazy season of 2007. Here we go......
1. A win THIS week in Atlanta is a precursor to any national title talk.....as it matters not what happens to Tennessee (for this discussion) if we can't even beat the hornets (which, by the way, is what a yellow jacket is). Obviously I will still be happy with an SEC title game appearance if Kentucky can break their 22 game losing streak, but that is not what this thread is about.
2. Obviously Kentucky must beat Tennessee or we will never get to the Dome and never get the chance to face LSU....so this is the next priority.
3. West Virginia must lose one of their next two games. UConn is competitive and Pitt is not....although Pitt is a long-time rival and is the unranked team that could knock off another Top-5 team. I honestly see where WV could drop a game to either team....esp since Pat White has been injured this year and losing him could mean losing a game. If WV does not lose, and the rest of my evil plan plays out.....it will be WV and OSU in the final (since O. State has no more games to play and will be in the title game of my master plan).
4. Now that Oklahoma has a second loss and has dropped below the Dawgs....it is very likely that the Big 12 will be left out of the title game. Honestly, I don't know that it matters who wins the Missouri-Kansas game as long as Oklahoma wins the Big 12 title game. If Kansas defeats Mizzou, they will finish 12-1 and will deserve a BCS bowl....but will not go to the title game if they lose their conference championship. Likewise, a Missouri loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game will have the same impact on them...except it will be their 2nd loss and they will have no gripes when they drop below the Dawgs in the polls. Kansas will cry about it if they only have 1 loss....but their strength of schedule is so weak that no one will listen.
5. This is the longest shot.....best I can figure......even though it might not seem so on paper. For step #5 - USC must beat Arizona State. Why is this unlikely? Obviously USC is very capable to beat the Sun Devils, with all the talent and a Pac 10 title on the line.....but its just too easy. This year has been the year of craziness.....and USC will likely be favored to beat A. State....or it will at least be a very small line. The game is in Tempe (I think... isn't this where A. State is?) and USC does not play as well on the road as they do at home. Hopefully USC will win.....but I don't really know that it will happen.
You might say....Chunk, wait.....A. State still has to play Arizona as well. Couldn't the Wildcats beat A. State to knock them out of the picture? Of course.....it is a possibility, but Arizona already has a big win to knock Oregon off and can't do it to two teams, can they? Well, if A. State beats USC, the Sun Devils could be as high as #3 (BCS) when that game is played.....which is along the lines of the unranked teams knocking off Top-5 teams that we have come to know and love this year. Plus, if all this plays out, will Arizona State be able to handle the pressure of knowing that one little win over your biggest rival will secure a spot in the National title game? So, yeh, it is certainly possible.
With all that said....just 5 little steps......it could be a UGA-Ohio State match-up for the national title (if all goes according to plan).
A win over the gold-and-black and a trip to N'Orleans will be a nice consolation though. Here's hoping Boise St. beats Hawaii so we get a chance to play Kansas and show them what real football is all about.
Comments?
-Shaq Daddy
3 comments:
It is fun. But does anyone else think the polls have become more of an obligation as in, "This team lost so I have to drop them" or vice versa, rather than a genuine, "This is the nth best team in the country"?
It frustrates me that these voters look at the polls, say a #15 loses to a 3, and the #15 drops out! You said they were a 15 and they should lose to a 3, they shouldn't drop out just because they lost a game they should have lost.
Where am I going with this? As of Saturday, according to ESPN, Kansas has not PLAYED A TEAM WITH A SINGLE VOTE IN THE AP TOP 25!!! That is absurd. So you have guys voting them #2 out of obligation - they haven't lost so you have to reward them.
At any rate, AC is right.
I see the following as PROBABLE:
1. UGA beats Tech
2. KY beats Tennessee (slightly probable)
3. GA beats LSU (slightly probable)
4. USC beats ASU
The problem is, all of the first three will have to happen, and I know this.
50/50
The Big 12 championship going our way. I agree it doesn't matter who wins the Missouri game, but the combination of OKS beating Oklahoma and screwing everything up and the south winner winning the B12 thus leaving that champion out of the title game is 50/50 in my mind.
The improbable ...
WV losing. If not for this, I like our chances. I actually think a UGA team that has 2 losses and an SEC championship would leapfrong a 1 loss ASU, based on the fact that we're ahead in the AP and while this doesn't count, it is an indicator that some already see us as the better team.
Step 5 is complete. USC handed it to A. State. LSU and Arkansas are battling it out as I write. 2nd OT period and Felix Jones just ran for 15+ yrds on 1st down. McFadden scores on the 2nd play. Let's see what LSU can do to hold on.
Guess a few things are clearer now. Step #5 took care of itself on Thursday night and then Arkansas pulled off the next big one on Friday. That didn't help us any...but after Tennessee beat Kentucky (after watching the replay...the 3rd and goal from the one should have been an easy TD...even with the fumbled snap. THAT GUY WAS WIDE OPEN!!!), LSU having lost is a big help. Turns out we might be OK since LSU has already dropped that one game. After watching the Mizzou-Kansas game last night I feel like Mizzou could put on a good show against WV...and this is what I am pulling for if the Dawgs won't be in it. I don't know that WV will lose...or that Mizzou will lose to OU again...which if only one of those two things happened...would put O. State back in the show. I do not want that. As much as I would love to play USC in the Rose Bowl...I do not want O. State to have a shot at the title. As far as I'm concerned...either both Mizzou and WV lose or I don't want either to do so.
Crazy thing is....with Mizzou walking over Kansas for 3 quarters...I thought KU might drop pretty far....but after making a show of it in the 4th quarter...they might not drop far at all...maybe only to 5 or something. If that happened..they would have as much a shot as us at the N. C'ship if Mizzou and WV lose. Who knows?
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