Here's the exercise. Taking everything, into account, where would you rank the SEC programs at this point? Thinking long term, not just what they will do next year, and considering recruiting, state population, recruiting history and future, program support, competition, history, coaching, coaching outlook (staff retention and stability) AD, facilities, intangibles, etc. Might pose the question this way, over the next 20 years, how do you think the SEC teams will do, relative to each other?
1. Florida
2. Georgia
3. LSU
4. Alabama
4. (tie) Tennessee
6. Auburn
7. Arkansas
8. South Carolina
9. Ole Miss
10. Kentucky
11. Miss State
12. Vandy
Tennessee is a big unknown, but I see long term drop off and slight drop off for LSU. I see Alabama having long-term improvement, and Auburn staying really strong but struggling with the West stepping it up. After that, I'm banking on history and state economics and population.
5 comments:
1. Georgia
2.LSU
3.Florida
4.Alabama
5.Auburn
6.South Carolina
7.Tennessee
8.Arkansas
9.Kentucky
10.Miss State
11.Ole Miss
12.Vandy
I would have put Florida first but there seems to be a problem in the paradise of Gainsville......Urban is a peckerhead and he has coaches leaving for SEC east rivals....that ain't a good sign. I tend to think the Great Pumpkin just lost his job security to Duke..I see a flat to slow decline in Knox-Vegas. LSU continues to get great talent...Les Miles is crazy and I think it catches up to him from time to time but I see them being one of the top two from the West for the next little while. I do feel that Alabama has the potential to re-establish itself if Saban can put up with the fans long enough. Auburn to me could still climb but I think their problem is their coach....every year his name seems to come up for other jobs and he never handles well in my opinion..I promise you Rodney Garner uses that and you better know that St. Nick will hammer that point.
I hate him, but.....the evil genius is a good coach....if he doesn't get board or pissed SC will climb but the celling is pretty low...I don't see him wining the east much less the conference.... he will continue to have the ability to make others loose it...case in point...the Dawgs this year. Petrino has not proven to me that he is all that good....what he did at Louisville was done in conference USA....a long way from the SEC....and he showed me nothing in Atlanta this year....and let's remember that the Arky fans are crazy....first chance he gets he bolts for another job.
The last three can be shuffled in many different ways....MSU has a good coach in my opinion but he will never get the depth of talent you need in Starkville....same goes for Rich Brooks..good coach,short shelf life, can't build depth..not enough at least.....Nutt could give Ole Miss a boost...but not enough..Vandy...well they are Vandy...but Bobby Johnson is a good one as well and they always play us tough.
As for the Dawgs...yeah, I'm a homer.....but we are on the up swing and CMR is finding himself...trick will be keeping our assistants....and I think he has built the type of atmosphere that will keep his guys from jumping for just any job.
I think if you look at the past five years, the rankings would be as follows (given that a national championship is major points in this poll)....
West East
1. LSU 1. Florida
2. Auburn 2. UGA
3. Arkansas 3. Tennessee
4. Alabama 4. USC
5. Ole Miss 5. Kentucky
5. Miss. State 6. Vandy
Its hard to know which program has been worse over the last 5 years in the west, as Ole Miss ran off a good coach for an unproven assistant which blew up in their faces....while Miss. St was on major probation and hired a good man and coach....but has a long way to go. As for the West, there is no real reason why LSU will not stay on top....and Alabama should challenge Auburn for the 2 spot in the next decade. I don't see Arkansas maintaining their recent level of play as I agree that Petrino will be gone with the 1st stiff wind. I see M. St. continuing to improve and give people headaches....and they might win a Western division in a year when all have 3 SEC losses....but not a year by year power. I think Nutt will improve Ole Miss, but it will literally take years. They will get better, but to be in the top 3 of that side will be a stretch.
On the East, I definately see UGA staying strong for many years and see Tennessee on the decline. They will always compete but will not be in the top 2 year in and year out like they were in the 90's. Vandy will always struggle and so will Kentucky for reasons mentioned by Chris above. USC could get better, and yes, Spurrier can coach....but to be a yearly contender is unrealistic. They will stay in the 3/4 spot. Florida is that big question mark that can keep UGA from being in major bowl talk year in and year out. They have the best opportunity at talent in the SEC...but will have to compete with the FSU and Miami's (as usual) and now the UCF's and USF's that are on the rise. I do agree that Urban is on the decline with assistants leaving, etc....plus, he's just a jerk. I don't think he can maintain the depth that Zook built...although he certainly has the potential to do so. I think if you look at the collective next 20 years....UGA will be the winningest program in the East...and UF will be a close second. I just think they will have more years of struggle than we will. They owned the 90's, and surely won't be able to do so like that again any time soon.
Overall, I don't know how you can legitimately include West and East teams in the same ranking. I think its too tough to call and too subjective. However, I do believe that it is much more likely for the East to maintain the Big 3 on top year after year whereas the West will have a lot more fluctuation in their rankings....so I would put it like this.....
1. UGA
2. Florida
3. LSU
4. Tennessee
5. Alabama
6. Auburn
7. Ole Miss
8. Arkansas
9. South Carolina
10. Miss State
11. Kentucky
12. Vandy
You may wonder why I have USC at 9 instead of higher. Although I agree they will be better than that over the next 5 years...when Spurrier leaves it will be downhill fast and with a vengence. And this is my poll for the next 20years.
Good posts
On Meyer losing DC: I have wondered after the year they had if that was a voluntary move by Charlie Strong.
On Florida and population: The recruiting base down there tips the scale in their favor, despite having several D1 programs.
SEC state population in millions (2005)
Alabama - 4.5
Arkansas - 2.7
Florida - 17.8
Georgia - 9
Kentucky - 4.2
Louisiana - 4.5
Mississippi - 2.9
South Carolina - 4.3
Tennessee - 6
I believe GA is closer to 10 million and FL at 20 million by now.
Bigger than that on FL is the question on this offense. It is too soon to tell, whether it will prove gimicky (Other than with Tebow, I wouldn't feel too good about short yardage situations) or the best there is. That will determine FL's future 5-10 years out. Can you win without a traditional tailback?
SC ahead of Tennessee? Can't buy into that. Miss State over Ole Miss maybe for the next few years, but I go with the flagship for the long haul. They'll never contend over the long haul for a championship but Ole Missy won't put up with MSU being better.
AC - Actually, I wondered more about Ole Miss below Arky than the SC drop. Only 7 teams have even made it to Atlanta since SEC championship game was introduced and Ole Miss ain't one of them. Arky always has enough speed to scare some people and beat some people, though they may never win a conference title.
I think Nutt is pretty good...and I think he will potentially give Ole Miss a chance to compete. Not every year....but every now and again.
On Flordia's population....you gotta keep in mind how many of those are retired and non-reproducing (ie- no kids that play football). There aren't as many high schools down there as you would think. At least not twice as many as in Georgia as the total population would indicate. I'll check on that and find out the exact number.
Florida has approx. 750 schools competing in their FHSAA. Georgia has about 450 in the GHSA.
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