Home is not where you live, but where they understand you.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Championship Aspirations III
Gator Week, Sports Fans, and we're still alive. And guess what, Auburn and Kentucky don't look so good so this one just gets bigger and bigger. Where to start? No idea, but here goes.
Florida has USC and Vandy left so don't even think about asking yourself, 'what are our chances if we lose?' We're out of the SEC race and certainly out of the NC race. I will still go to Auburn and cheer for the Dawgs to make it past Kentucky and Tech, be cheering for Orlando, might even make a trip out of it (love to hang out at Disney with a bunch of Bulldogs) but make no mistake, everything hangs on this game.
LSU
I've already forgotten it. Nice game but can I be honest? It scared me to death the way they ran the ball on us. Stafford, while the difference in the game, missed some throws early that could've blown this thing wide open. I'll sum up my concerns this way. Our OL is unbelievable and SS is coach of the year, but our DL needs to wake up in a hurry.
THIS GAME HAS CHANGED
I woke up this morning and had the most incredible thought. I expect to beat Florida. Never really had that thought before. Not "maybe we can beat Florida" or "We should beat Florida but...". Nope, I really think we WILL beat Florida.
And this goes back to the way the complexion of this series has changed. How so? Somehow in one game, we changed a rivalry that had been dominated for 15 years from, "Can UGA finally do this" or "Will there be another choke?" or whatever the tired old story line had become to some ridiculous story about the Celebration and how Florida wants revenge. Everyone is waiting to see how THEY respond and it is the first time since I've been a Georgia fan that the onus is on them. They're a great team and maybe the best we've seen so far but I like the psychology of this game for us.
That being said, it does hurt that we are coming off a big game and they are coming off a beatdown delivered. But to be honest, it really didn’t ‘feel’ like UGA was emotionally spent, rather that UGA is only starting to focus. It almost seems like (offensively) we’ve been bored to this point.
Now, let's look at the stupid BCS. Looking at some things I said a few weeks ago and seeing what, if anything has changed.
“…assume no 2 conference teams will play each other.”
Other then Penn State falling apart, then something crazy happening in the Big 12 or SEC … nah forget it, this is still true.
“This may have been one of those years where we actually lost to the 'right' team, if we can handle our business.”
This remains especially true if Alabama continues to win.
“The bad news is this. We might not be very good”
I’m glad to say, this is not the case. We’ve answered the question are we good enough, now the question is can we repeat it and the bad news has to do with what everyone else does.
“A one loss UGA does NOT get in if two of these happen. 1) Texas runs the table 2) PSU runs the table 3) OkSU or TT run the table (not likely at all)
Possible eliminators 1) Texas loses one, wins B12 2) OU runs the table, Texas loses two 3) USC runs the table”
PENN STATE
UGA’s NC chances were dealt a pretty significant blow with the Penn State win. That was the toughest competition they are likely to see. On the flip side, they came close to losing and it is safe to say, should they slip up late, they have no chance of getting in with one loss. So now we have to look a little beyond who they have left into who THEY have left and what they’ve done.
@Iowa – Lost 3 very close games to Pitt, Northwestern, and MSU. Good news is, they play a very stingy defense based on the points they’ve given up. And they’re coming off their two best games whipping Indiana and Wisconsin. They will play Illinois before getting PSU at home. The bad news is PSU is off this week. Oh, and they look like a pretty sound football team.
Indiana – nah
MSU – this is probably the best shot at losing only I can’t see an undefeated team getting beat at home knowing they are headed for a championship if they win. The worst about MSU is they were thoroughly drubbed by OSU. Hopefully, that was their Alabama. The best is they are off the week before playing PSU.
Suffice to say, the cleanest ending to all this would be for PSU to lose and the Big 12 champ to play the SEC champ for all the marbles.
TEXAS
The Big 12 picture is considerably murkier. Where we’re concerned, I don’t think we have to worry about a one loss team being ahead of us, unless it is OU or UT, and even then, I think the numbers could work out in our favor. The worst part of all this is that UT, like PSU, looks more and more like a possible undefeated. Especially if they win Saturday. Following the TT game on Saturday, Baylor, Kansas, and A&M. Then UGA is left hoping UT gets beat in the Big 12 champ game.
MISSOURI
This is likely to be Missouri, as there is tremendous imbalance in the B12. Missouri has Baylor, KSU, ISU, and Kansas left. I doubt they can beat Texas based on the whipping they received the first time around but UGA fans might be left with this as their only hope. I don’t think a Mizzou who beats Texas can jump UGA simply based on the way the computer is shaking out and the strength of schedules.
OKLAHOMA
They would need Texas to lose 2 and that would necessitate a total collapse. Plus, if that were to happen, all of a sudden, losing to Texas doesn’t look all that admirable. Safe to say, this was their UGA/FL game. Unless...
TEXAS TECH
Should they beat Texas, they would be in the driver’s seat for the B12 Champ game. Ideally, you would have TT beating Texas (don’t think it will happen), then TT plays a brutal stretch of OSU and OU. You would have to figure they lose one of those and you could end up with a 3 way tie. The more convoluted the champ in the Big 12, the better it is for UGA, which is why I think it is crucial for the B12 champ to have one loss and if that does happen, a one loss SEC champ probably gets in ahead of them.
USC
USC did not look good on Saturday. They have remaining Washington, Cal, Stanford, Notre Dame, and UCLA. While I don’t think they will lose, I do think they take a back seat to a one loss B12, one loss SEC team.
THE MATH
Should UGA win this weekend, they will probably move up to #5 or #4 even if no other upsets happen. They are only .01 pts behind USC already.
The Harris poll has Georgia 8 and has already started to drop USC (down from 5 to 7). Florida and Texas Tech are ranked ahead of UGA and one would have to think that we move up to at least 5. (the trick here being if Texas loses, which we want to happen, how far do the pollsters put them?)
The other human poll in this mess is USA Today in which we are currently ranked #8 behind Florida and TT. EVEN IF they don’t put us ahead of USC, and I think they would have to, we will move up over Florida, a move USC can't make, at least to 6 and maybe to 5.
The computer polls aren’t likely to change much (we are tied for 4) they already think highly of our strength of schedule, but the human polls would move us up ahead of Oklahoma and coupled with the bump in the human polls we should be 4 or 5 in the BCS. Interesting that it could be worse if TT beats Texas, but temporarily worse, long run, better. Based on how these numbers are shaking out, if we accomplish everything we have to do, we will be the top one loss team up for consideration with a tremendous bump after an SEC champ game.
In sum, not much has changed. We still need either Texas or Penn State to lose and after that, for a couple of administrative matters to go our way. Not too much to ask but the longer these guys keep winning the less our chances. I did have a vision of a UGA / PSU matchup but that might’ve been daydreaming.
2 comments:
FIRST OFF
Florida has USC and Vandy left so don't even think about asking yourself, 'what are our chances if we lose?' We're out of the SEC race and certainly out of the NC race. I will still go to Auburn and cheer for the Dawgs to make it past Kentucky and Tech, be cheering for Orlando, might even make a trip out of it (love to hang out at Disney with a bunch of Bulldogs) but make no mistake, everything hangs on this game.
LSU
I've already forgotten it. Nice game but can I be honest? It scared me to death the way they ran the ball on us. Stafford, while the difference in the game, missed some throws early that could've blown this thing wide open. I'll sum up my concerns this way. Our OL is unbelievable and SS is coach of the year, but our DL needs to wake up in a hurry.
THIS GAME HAS CHANGED
I woke up this morning and had the most incredible thought. I expect to beat Florida. Never really had that thought before. Not "maybe we can beat Florida" or "We should beat Florida but...". Nope, I really think we WILL beat Florida.
And this goes back to the way the complexion of this series has changed. How so? Somehow in one game, we changed a rivalry that had been dominated for 15 years from, "Can UGA finally do this" or "Will there be another choke?" or whatever the tired old story line had become to some ridiculous story about the Celebration and how Florida wants revenge. Everyone is waiting to see how THEY respond and it is the first time since I've been a Georgia fan that the onus is on them. They're a great team and maybe the best we've seen so far but I like the psychology of this game for us.
That being said, it does hurt that we are coming off a big game and they are coming off a beatdown delivered. But to be honest, it really didn’t ‘feel’ like UGA was emotionally spent, rather that UGA is only starting to focus. It almost seems like (offensively) we’ve been bored to this point.
Now, let's look at the stupid BCS. Looking at some things I said a few weeks ago and seeing what, if anything has changed.
“…assume no 2 conference teams will play each other.”
Other then Penn State falling apart, then something crazy happening in the Big 12 or SEC … nah forget it, this is still true.
“This may have been one of those years where we actually lost to the 'right' team, if we can handle our business.”
This remains especially true if Alabama continues to win.
“The bad news is this. We might not be very good”
I’m glad to say, this is not the case. We’ve answered the question are we good enough, now the question is can we repeat it and the bad news has to do with what everyone else does.
“A one loss UGA does NOT get in if two of these happen.
1) Texas runs the table
2) PSU runs the table
3) OkSU or TT run the table (not likely at all)
Possible eliminators
1) Texas loses one, wins B12
2) OU runs the table, Texas loses two
3) USC runs the table”
PENN STATE
UGA’s NC chances were dealt a pretty significant blow with the Penn State win. That was the toughest competition they are likely to see. On the flip side, they came close to losing and it is safe to say, should they slip up late, they have no chance of getting in with one loss. So now we have to look a little beyond who they have left into who THEY have left and what they’ve done.
@Iowa – Lost 3 very close games to Pitt, Northwestern, and MSU. Good news is, they play a very stingy defense based on the points they’ve given up. And they’re coming off their two best games whipping Indiana and Wisconsin. They will play Illinois before getting PSU at home. The bad news is PSU is off this week. Oh, and they look like a pretty sound football team.
Indiana – nah
MSU – this is probably the best shot at losing only I can’t see an undefeated team getting beat at home knowing they are headed for a championship if they win. The worst about MSU is they were thoroughly drubbed by OSU. Hopefully, that was their Alabama. The best is they are off the week before playing PSU.
Suffice to say, the cleanest ending to all this would be for PSU to lose and the Big 12 champ to play the SEC champ for all the marbles.
TEXAS
The Big 12 picture is considerably murkier. Where we’re concerned, I don’t think we have to worry about a one loss team being ahead of us, unless it is OU or UT, and even then, I think the numbers could work out in our favor. The worst part of all this is that UT, like PSU, looks more and more like a possible undefeated. Especially if they win Saturday. Following the TT game on Saturday, Baylor, Kansas, and A&M. Then UGA is left hoping UT gets beat in the Big 12 champ game.
MISSOURI
This is likely to be Missouri, as there is tremendous imbalance in the B12. Missouri has Baylor, KSU, ISU, and Kansas left. I doubt they can beat Texas based on the whipping they received the first time around but UGA fans might be left with this as their only hope. I don’t think a Mizzou who beats Texas can jump UGA simply based on the way the computer is shaking out and the strength of schedules.
OKLAHOMA
They would need Texas to lose 2 and that would necessitate a total collapse. Plus, if that were to happen, all of a sudden, losing to Texas doesn’t look all that admirable. Safe to say, this was their UGA/FL game. Unless...
TEXAS TECH
Should they beat Texas, they would be in the driver’s seat for the B12 Champ game. Ideally, you would have TT beating Texas (don’t think it will happen), then TT plays a brutal stretch of OSU and OU. You would have to figure they lose one of those and you could end up with a 3 way tie. The more convoluted the champ in the Big 12, the better it is for UGA, which is why I think it is crucial for the B12 champ to have one loss and if that does happen, a one loss SEC champ probably gets in ahead of them.
USC
USC did not look good on Saturday. They have remaining Washington, Cal, Stanford, Notre Dame, and UCLA. While I don’t think they will lose, I do think they take a back seat to a one loss B12, one loss SEC team.
THE MATH
Should UGA win this weekend, they will probably move up to #5 or #4 even if no other upsets happen. They are only .01 pts behind USC already.
The Harris poll has Georgia 8 and has already started to drop USC (down from 5 to 7). Florida and Texas Tech are ranked ahead of UGA and one would have to think that we move up to at least 5. (the trick here being if Texas loses, which we want to happen, how far do the pollsters put them?)
The other human poll in this mess is USA Today in which we are currently ranked #8 behind Florida and TT. EVEN IF they don’t put us ahead of USC, and I think they would have to, we will move up over Florida, a move USC can't make, at least to 6 and maybe to 5.
The computer polls aren’t likely to change much (we are tied for 4) they already think highly of our strength of schedule, but the human polls would move us up ahead of Oklahoma and coupled with the bump in the human polls we should be 4 or 5 in the BCS. Interesting that it could be worse if TT beats Texas, but temporarily worse, long run, better. Based on how these numbers are shaking out, if we accomplish everything we have to do, we will be the top one loss team up for consideration with a tremendous bump after an SEC champ game.
In sum, not much has changed. We still need either Texas or Penn State to lose and after that, for a couple of administrative matters to go our way. Not too much to ask but the longer these guys keep winning the less our chances. I did have a vision of a UGA / PSU matchup but that might’ve been daydreaming.
Leave it to Blutarsky to sum the LSU game up this way.
Looking at it today, it’s sort of the best of both worlds - a dominating performance from a team that still has areas it can improve.
Agreed. And Reshad Jones was inexplicably yet noticably off his game. Weird.
Also, for kicks, check out this dude. http://dontbetonit.wordpress.com/2008/10/26/i-did-my-part/
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