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Friday, October 17, 2008
Championship aspirations
Since I am the resident blowhard, I thought I'd add to my copious body of work today with a look at the Dawgs as we approach the backside of the schedule. See my comments for the lengthy assessment.
The easiest way to start assessing teams and their shot at getting to the Championship game is to assume no 2 conference teams will play each other. This works very neatly on the Big 12 and SEC side, since we have championship games. I think it is safe to say then, that UGA must, above all else, win the SEC championship game in order to get in the National Championship game. How is that accomplished?
In short, Jacksonville. No matter what happened or will happen, I think we all knew, starting as early as last November, that this game will be enormous and will decide the East. Fine, I think we can accept that. This may have been one of those years where we actually lost to the 'right' team, if we can handle our business. Assuming a win in Jacksonville, and assuming no bumps against our other competition, we win the SEC and have a 1 loss record. What then stands in the way of a NC appearance?
1. The Big 12 Champ. Texas plays Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech in a ROW. That is solid, my friends. They run through that and win the B12, they're in. Should they lose ONE and win the B12, they're basically tied with a one loss SEC champ. Safe to say, in fact, if a 1 loss team wins the B12, they have a strong chance of getting in the NC game and it may be ahead of a one loss UGA. They've built up quite a bit of PR. That could be UOK (Kansas, TT, OSU left on their schedule), but they'll probably lose another and even if they don't, Texas would have to lose twice.
TT is about to go down hard. They've beaten E Wash, Nevada, SMU, UMass, KSU, and Nebraska in OT. They'll have to get through KU, UT, OSU, and OU consecutively. They may lose 3/4. OkSU? I'm just not seeing it. Mizzou, should they upset Tx, would have the easiest path. But then the one loss MO would meet a TX or resurgent OU and I just can't see them winning both. My guess, TX has one loss and wins the B12, getting into the NC game. Guess 2 is that Texas crumbles, OU wins out and a 1 loss OU gets to the NC game. Guess 3 is that OU loses again, TX loses twice and wins the B12 and gets left out OR, MO loses another but wins the B12, getting left out of the NC game.
2. The Big 10(11) champ. (insert groan) PSU/OSU First let me point out the astounding fact that those are the only B10(11) teams currently ranked. Let me also point out to you PSU's schedule. It is truly P-U. Coastal Carolina, Oregon State, Syracuse, Temple, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin. BUT, I will say the combined score so far is 317-77, they've taken care of bidness. IF they win the OSU game, they will COAST to an undefeated record. Even if UGA wins the rest, they will not overcome an undefeated PSU. IF PSU loses to OSU, a one loss UGA would likely get in ahead of them and surely ahead of a one loss OSU.
3. USC By my logic, USC lost to OSU and that should earn them a spot behind UGA. The rest of the country does not ascribe to my logic. Here is the muddiest part of this whole thing. Your schedule is a flippin' joke. WSU, UA, UW, Cal, Stanford, ND, and UCLA. Clearly, another loss and you're done for, but this team won't lose again. My question is, at what point does a one loss team jump USC? It happens, I believe it does, but when?
Good news, it is smooth sailing from there. The top 13 are B12 (5), SEC (4), USC, PSU, and OSU. A MAXIMUM of one can survive from each of those groupings as after that, you have Utah, BSU, several ACC schools, all of whom have at least one loss. Safe to say, the NC game will be so represented.
A one loss UGA does NOT get in if two of these happen. 1) Texas runs the table 2) PSU runs the table 3) OkSU or TT run the table (not likely at all)
Possible eliminators 1) Texas loses one, wins B12 2) OU runs the table, Texas loses two 3) USC runs the table
In sum, our chances look VERY good right now. If we are who we think we are, we have a shot to win the rest. Auburn is a shell of what we thought so the tail end of the schedule looks a lot more favorable than it did. But make no mistake, the margin for error is very close to ZERO. ASU was a pretender, Tennessee is worse than people thought, and we looked like shweaty balls in the first half against Bama on national TV. I think also, we should continue to pull for Alabama. A win over an undefeated Bama looks so much better, especially if we beat the one team that gave us our one loss. It would be hard to deny UGA their shot if this happens. the big unknown is what is to be done with an undefeated PSU, a one loss B12 champ and a one loss SEC champ?
At two losses, even with the SEC championship, it don't look so good.
1) The B12 champ would have to lose 2 and that would be no guarantee 2) SC would have to lose again 3) PSU would have to lose twice and OSU would have to lose again (the thought of them getting in makes me want to hurl)
1 comment:
The easiest way to start assessing teams and their shot at getting to the Championship game is to assume no 2 conference teams will play each other. This works very neatly on the Big 12 and SEC side, since we have championship games. I think it is safe to say then, that UGA must, above all else, win the SEC championship game in order to get in the National Championship game. How is that accomplished?
In short, Jacksonville. No matter what happened or will happen, I think we all knew, starting as early as last November, that this game will be enormous and will decide the East. Fine, I think we can accept that. This may have been one of those years where we actually lost to the 'right' team, if we can handle our business. Assuming a win in Jacksonville, and assuming no bumps against our other competition, we win the SEC and have a 1 loss record. What then stands in the way of a NC appearance?
1. The Big 12 Champ. Texas plays Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech in a ROW. That is solid, my friends. They run through that and win the B12, they're in. Should they lose ONE and win the B12, they're basically tied with a one loss SEC champ. Safe to say, in fact, if a 1 loss team wins the B12, they have a strong chance of getting in the NC game and it may be ahead of a one loss UGA. They've built up quite a bit of PR. That could be UOK (Kansas, TT, OSU left on their schedule), but they'll probably lose another and even if they don't, Texas would have to lose twice.
TT is about to go down hard. They've beaten E Wash, Nevada, SMU, UMass, KSU, and Nebraska in OT. They'll have to get through KU, UT, OSU, and OU consecutively. They may lose 3/4. OkSU? I'm just not seeing it. Mizzou, should they upset Tx, would have the easiest path. But then the one loss MO would meet a TX or resurgent OU and I just can't see them winning both. My guess, TX has one loss and wins the B12, getting into the NC game. Guess 2 is that Texas crumbles, OU wins out and a 1 loss OU gets to the NC game. Guess 3 is that OU loses again, TX loses twice and wins the B12 and gets left out OR, MO loses another but wins the B12, getting left out of the NC game.
2. The Big 10(11) champ. (insert groan) PSU/OSU First let me point out the astounding fact that those are the only B10(11) teams currently ranked. Let me also point out to you PSU's schedule. It is truly P-U. Coastal Carolina, Oregon State, Syracuse, Temple, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin. BUT, I will say the combined score so far is 317-77, they've taken care of bidness. IF they win the OSU game, they will COAST to an undefeated record. Even if UGA wins the rest, they will not overcome an undefeated PSU. IF PSU loses to OSU, a one loss UGA would likely get in ahead of them and surely ahead of a one loss OSU.
3. USC By my logic, USC lost to OSU and that should earn them a spot behind UGA. The rest of the country does not ascribe to my logic. Here is the muddiest part of this whole thing. Your schedule is a flippin' joke. WSU, UA, UW, Cal, Stanford, ND, and UCLA. Clearly, another loss and you're done for, but this team won't lose again. My question is, at what point does a one loss team jump USC? It happens, I believe it does, but when?
Good news, it is smooth sailing from there. The top 13 are B12 (5), SEC (4), USC, PSU, and OSU. A MAXIMUM of one can survive from each of those groupings as after that, you have Utah, BSU, several ACC schools, all of whom have at least one loss. Safe to say, the NC game will be so represented.
A one loss UGA does NOT get in if two of these happen.
1) Texas runs the table
2) PSU runs the table
3) OkSU or TT run the table (not likely at all)
Possible eliminators
1) Texas loses one, wins B12
2) OU runs the table, Texas loses two
3) USC runs the table
In sum, our chances look VERY good right now. If we are who we think we are, we have a shot to win the rest. Auburn is a shell of what we thought so the tail end of the schedule looks a lot more favorable than it did. But make no mistake, the margin for error is very close to ZERO. ASU was a pretender, Tennessee is worse than people thought, and we looked like shweaty balls in the first half against Bama on national TV. I think also, we should continue to pull for Alabama. A win over an undefeated Bama looks so much better, especially if we beat the one team that gave us our one loss. It would be hard to deny UGA their shot if this happens. the big unknown is what is to be done with an undefeated PSU, a one loss B12 champ and a one loss SEC champ?
At two losses, even with the SEC championship, it don't look so good.
1) The B12 champ would have to lose 2 and that would be no guarantee
2) SC would have to lose again
3) PSU would have to lose twice and OSU would have to lose again (the thought of them getting in makes me want to hurl)
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